Susan Collins defies blue-state headwinds in crucial Senate battle as new poll reveals striking split

Collins, who is running for a sixth six-year term in the Senate, stands at 49% support among likely voters, with former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, the Democratic nominee, at 46%, with 5% undecided in the New York Times/Siena poll. Collins' three-point edge is within the survey's margin of error.

The survey, which was conducted Sept. 15-22, is one of the first to indicate Collins ahead of Jackson since he replaced former Senate nominee Graham Platner in late July.

Jackson, who campaigned alongside Platner earlier this year as he unsuccessfully ran for governor, won a special nominating convention to fill the party's vacant Senate nomination.

Collins ripped the report as "offensive" and a "partisan hit job" orchestrated by Democrats.

Jackson took to social media to claim that "Susan Collins is blatantly corrupt."

Collins' advantage over Jackson in the new survey comes even as 55% of those questioned said they prefer Democrats to control the Senate next year, with 43% saying they'd like the GOP to retain the majority.

Likely boosting Collins are her favorable ratings, which are in positive territory, at 51%-48%. Meanwhile, Jackson, a fifth-generation logger and a one-time conservative Republican who became a Democrat over two decades ago and who is now running on a progressive platform, is underwater with 41% of those questioned viewing him favorably and 49% holding an unfavorable view.

In August, a resurfaced 1988 police record which detailed accusations that Jackson assaulted a man and pushed his longtime partner during a late-night confrontation in Fort Kent, Maine, grabbed headlines.

Jackson, in a statement, said, "I took responsibility for it then, and I take responsibility for it now. But let me be clear: I have never been violent with my partner Lana, or any other woman."

Lana Pelletier, who, according to records, is Jackson's second cousin, shares two adult children with him.

Collins, the only GOP senator seeking re-election in a state President Donald Trump lost in the 2024 election, is facing a rough political climate, amid Trump's underwater approval ratings, persistent inflation, soaring fuel prices and what polls indicate is an unpopular war with Iran.

The senator, known as a moderate Republican who at times has voted against Trump, this summer received bipartisan praise after reaching a milestone by casting her 10,000th consecutive Senate vote.

But Democrats are taking aim at Collins over her comments that she didn't regret her 2018 vote to confirm Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh, despite his crucial vote four years later to overturn the landmark Roe v. Wade abortion ruling.

And following the fatal shooting in Maine this summer involving Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents, Democrats heavily criticized the Senate Appropriations Committee chair for her support for ICE funding.

But Collins has broken with Trump numerous times in recent months, criticizing his tariff war with neighboring Canada and voting against Attorney General Todd Blanche's confirmation.

The senator has a history of surviving Democratic efforts to unseat her.

Six years ago, she trailed Democratic challenger Sara Gideon, the then-Maine House speaker, but the senator ended up winning re-election by nearly nine points while former President Joe Biden carried the state by a similar margin.

Fox News Digital reached out to both the Collins and Jackson campaigns for comment on the new survey, but didn't receive a response at the time this story was published.

The New York Times and Siena on Thursday also released polls on two other crucial Senate showdowns that are must-holds for the Democrats.

In neighboring New Hampshire, the survey indicates Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas with a 50%-45% advantage over former Republican Sen. John E. Sununu, in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

Meanwhile, in Michigan, the poll indicates Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed ahead of former GOP Rep. Mike Rogers 49%-44% in the showdown to succeed retiring Democratic Sen. Gary Peters.