Russia may gain Ukraine's fertile, resource-rich territory as Trump proposes land swap

These areas have been under partial or full Russian control at various points over the course of the Kremlin's three-and-a-half-year war. 

"The land that Russia currently occupies in Ukraine's south and east is rich in various natural resources," said David Salvo, the managing director of the Alliance for Securing Democracy at German Marshall Fund.

"Should Russia keep that land, they'd be stealing vast quantities of critical minerals and other key economic assets. This includes important commodities on the global market, like lithium, coal, and gas," added Salvo, who previously served as the deputy secretary of state's policy advisor for Europe, Eurasia and international security issues.

"Russia's access to minerals in occupied Ukraine will likely augment the People's Republic of China's ability to access Ukraine's minerals," the Institute for the Study of War wrote in a statement to Fox News Digital, adding that Russia has previously worked with China to extract these commodities around the globe since at least 2005.

"The U.S.-Ukraine mineral deal signed in April 2025 will only be effective if U.S. and Ukrainian companies can access those resources," the statement from the Institute for the Study of War went on to say, noting the challenge given that Russian forces currently hold territory containing significant deposits.

"Ukraine's economy would survive, but it would undoubtedly lose in the hundreds of billions," Salvo said.

According to the latest review from the Kyiv School of Economics, the Ukrainian agriculture industry has sustained approximately $80 billion in damages and losses. 

The group also projects that the country's economy will shrink by 45%, while disrupted grain exports and ongoing destruction of its agricultural sector threaten millions worldwide with hunger.