Saturday, 07 Dec 2024

Experts predict Supreme Court likely to stay out of 2024 presidential election

Election lawyers and experts alike say the Supreme Court is unlikely to take up an election-related case after Nov. 5.


Experts predict Supreme Court likely to stay out of 2024 presidential election

"It's got to be super, super close," Jason Torchinsky, partner at Holtzman Vogel, told Fox News Digital. "If you look at the history of post-election litigation, the only places where it has been successfully outcome-determinative really are in places where the vote is just super close."

"If there's a real issue, the Court will take it. If it's something that the Court doesn't think merits a higher-level view, then they'll summarily affirm," Torchinsky said. 

The statute says that "any action brought by an aggrieved candidate for President or Vice President" will be heard by a district court with a three-judge panel. It is then "the duty of the court to advance on the docket and to expedite to the greatest possible extent the disposition of the action." 

"It does kind of create a new route into the federal court for a specific limited set of issues being raised under the Electoral Count Act," said Greg Teufel, founder of OGC Law. "There are very limited issues that can be raised under that Act, though. So it's not a broad expansion or increase in the likelihood of litigation, either in federal courts or litigation that reaches the U.S. Supreme Court, under the Electoral Reform Act."

Teufel noted that for an election case to be taken up by the Court, "there would have to be significant and provable fraud allegations or other serious violations of the law in the manner that elections are conducted or votes are processed."

"In terms of the makeup of the court, there's no question you've got six appointees of Republican judges at this point," Burns said. "And these are generally people who, I think, are going to interpret what needs to be interpreted, whether it's a state statute or a federal statute. Their general philosophy is to adhere as closely as possible to the words of the statute."

"You have a more conservative-minded Supreme Court in that respect," Burns continued. "And you certainly have Republicans generally making those types of arguments about courts interpreting statutes or state constitutions, for instance, in a stricter manner. So I think in that respect, given the arguments that each side generally makes, Republicans would be in better shape."

John Hardin Young, counsel at Sandler Reiff, however, told Fox News Digital he believes it is highly unlikely that the Supreme Court could decide the 2024 election, especially noting the conservative majority. 

"I think that there's now a sensitivity among the nine justices not to get involved unless it were absolutely necessary," Young said. "There is, I think, somewhat of a bias in the majority on the Supreme Court to get involved if they believe that process is being corrupted or people who aren't following the rules because the majority is, I think, very sensitive to democracy depending on people following the rules."

"There are just so many unknowns that we have to see how things play out," said Jeff Wice, professor at New York Law School. 

"The entirety of the act may come under challenge if it's utilized in a way that impacts the outcome of the election in a way that people view as improper, unfair or unlawful," Teufel said. "Either side disappointed with how the electoral count goes could raise constitutional questions about the laws used and the process used to count the votes."

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